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FOR5/338 Professor Endreny

Research Project Update Homework 4, 2002

Sequence Stage #2: Data Analysis, Lit. Review, & Hypothesis Refinement

Requested Information:

1. Group names

2. Refined science question based on earlier feedback (NEW OR UPDATED)

3. Reformulate as a falsifiable hypothesis (NEW OR UPDATED)

4. Variables measured

5. Tools used

6. Geographic area

7. Time and duration of observations

8. Observation Schedule

9. Data forms used

10. Preliminary descriptive data analysis (NEW OR UPDATED)

11. Initial literature review (NEW OR UPDATED)

12: Cited Literature (NEW OR UPDATED)

13. Data Capture

NOTE: Please do not remove sections from the earlier report, and attach the earlier graded report with this report so that progress can be recorded

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FOR5/338 Professor Endreny

Research Project Update Homework 4, 2002

Sequence Stage #2: Data Analysis, Lit. Review, & Hypothesis Refinement

1. Group Names: Theodore Endreny, Tim Riley, Amanda Baldauf; Jennifer Basta; Adam Baumann; Jennifer Bosworth; Mandy Bruns; Amanda Button; Kathryn Fisher; Adrienne Graham; Jason Hanna; Mario Masen; Steven McCague; Heidi Mitchell; Emily Pallo; Eric Paashaus; Mathew; Paul Sean Pearson; Carlos Pena; Raymond Richer; Meghan Ruby; Brian Rudd; Corey Schutzman; Stephanie Smith; Shannon Strusz; Jen Thomas; Suzanne Voelker; Andrew Wermuth; Peter Yurkosky; Hana Zima; Brett Kelly; Jennifer Fleurent

2. Refined Science Question: Can daily and weekly temporal patterns of pyranometer data be explained as an expression of, or correlated with, daily and weekly temporal patterns of cloud types and percent sky coverage over the main campus of the SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry in Syracuse, New York.

3. Falsifiable Null Hypothesis:

H_o There is no statistically significant correlation between daily and weekly temporal patterns of cloud types or percent sky coverage and pyranometer data as collected on the SUNY-ESF campus.

H_a1 There is a statistically significant correlation.

H_a2 There is a qualitative correlation.

4. Variables Measured (e.g., Metrics):

Cloud type (e.g., cumulus congestus; cirrocumulus; nimbostratus) over SUNY ESF campus, including primary and secondary types.
Percent sky coverage (e.g., clear (0-10% clouds), partly cloudy (11-50% cloud cover), mostly cloudy (51-90% cloud cover), and cloudy (91-100% cloud cover)) over SUNY ESF campus.
Pyranometer data (Watts per meter²) collected by SUNY –ESF MET station.

5. Tools Used:

Training in cloud observation with Ahrens Sky Condition CD. The observer will look directly up and not toward the horizon.
Human optical observations of cloud type and percent cover at SUNY ESF
SUNY ESF pyranometer data.

6. Geographic Area(s): SUNY ESF Main Campus: UTM 18 407293E 4765065N or 43° 02' 05"N, 76° 08' 17"W or 43.0346°N, 76.1380°W as well as the general location of Syracuse as determined from the NOAA NWS Daily Weather Maps.

7. Time and Duration of Observation(s): During daylight at Morning (between 5 and 10:30am), Noon (between 10:30 and 3 pm), and Evening (between 3 and 8 pm). Each observations will be made for roughly 1 to 5 minutes, depending on the difficulty in identifying and classifying cloud type and percent cover.

8. Observer Schedule: Sequencing of observers is organized alphabetically, where each member of the group is observing for approximately 3 days. At the final observation the observers are asked to contact by email the next observer. The list of observers is located at: http://www.tcrphoto.com/clouds.htm, and list of email contacts is located at: http://www.tcrphoto.com/for338uhemail.htm. If an observer will miss an observation, a substitute observer will be arranged by email.

9. Data Form: Please see the online web form, which requests day’s date, observer name, and for morning, noon, and evening the time of observation, cloud type, percent cover, and other notes on condition. Form allows for secondary cloud identification. Form at: http://www.tcrphoto.com/cloudform.htm.

10. Preliminary Descriptive Analysis: The period from September 16^th to September 20^th had a variety of cloud conditions reported. Cirrus, cumulus, cumulonimbus & status dominated the daily reports with cloud cover values ranging from 0-10% up to 90-100%. Pyranometer data collected between 12 and 2pm during the same period had values ranging from 200 to 600water/m².

11. Initial Literature Review:

Note: Make sure to include pier-reviewed articles in your literature review. This will help you understand if other scientists have tried to answer similar questions. Using your text is fine but make sure to have other sources as well.

Meteorology Today (Ahrens, 2003) lists clouds as one of seven elements that define weather, describing them as “visible mass of tiny water droplets and/or ice crystals that are above the earth’s surface” (p16).

Chapter 2 of Ahrens textbook (2003) describes how cloud cover, attenuating both incoming solar radiation and outgoing terrestrial radiation, influences the earth’s energy balance.

In Chapter 3 of Ahrens (2003) the affect of clouds on earth’s surface minimum and maximum temperatures is explained, and in turn, Chapter 6 describes that temperature changes near the dew point will affect the creation (e.g., condensation) and destruction (e.g., evaporation) of clouds.

Chapter 6 provides important information to this study, as it connects cloud types and their relative cloud coverage (e.g., cumulus are often spaced apart, while stratus cover the entire sky). The nature of clouds is further investigated in Chapter 7, where different clouds types can illustrate concepts of atmospheric stability, or heating differences at the surface and aloft. Much of this material is helpful background information for the research.

Additional reference materials for this research include the Syracuse Post Standard CNY Weather Section, providing estimates of cloud cover, the NOAA NWS Daily Weather Maps, providing maps of weather patterns at the surface and at 500 mb, and the Northeast Regional Climate Center, providing historical information on cloud cover for Syracuse. These resources will help to verify our group observations of cloud cover, understand climatic coverage percentages for the CNY area, and correlate clouds with weather observations.

12. Cited Literature:

Ahrens, D.C., Meteorology Today: An Introduction to Weather, Climate, and the Environment 7^th Edition, Thompson Brooks/Cole Publishers, 2003.

Syracuse Post Standard, Central New York Weather for the Record, Weather Section, Syracuse, NY. Issues for September 2002.

NOAA NWS, Daily Weather Maps – Weekly Series, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, September 2002.

NRCC, Syracuse Climate Data – Cloud Coverage by Month, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 2002.

13. Data Captured:

TodaysDate:	9/9/2002	9/10/2002	9/11/2002	9/12/2002	9/13/2002	9/14/2002
studentsname:	Amanda Baldauf	Amanda Baldauf	Amanda Baldauf	Jennifer Basta	Brian Rudd	Jennifer Basta
morntime:	10:30am	9:15am	9:00	9:00	9:15	8:00
morncloudtype1:	Cirrostratus	Cirrostratus	Stratocumulus	Cumulus / altocumulus	Cirrus / Altocumulus	Cumulus / altocumulus
morncloudcover1:	Clear	Clear	Cloudy	Clear	Parlty Cloudy	clear
noontime:	1:30pm	12:45	12:30	1:00	12:15	1:00
nooncloudtype1:	Cirrostratus	Cumulus	Stratocumulous	Cumulus / altocumulus	stratocumulus / stratos	Cirrus / cumulus
nooncloudcover1:	Clear	Clear	Mostly Cloudy	clear	mostly cloudy	clear
evtime:	5:00pm	5:00	5:30	5:00	5:45	5:00
Evcloudtype1:	Cirrostratus	Cumulus	Stratocumulous	Cumulus / altocumulus	stratocumulus / nimbocumuls	Cumulus / altocumulus
Evcloudcover:	Clear	Partly Cloudy	partly cloudy	clear	cloudy	clear

TodaysDate:	9/26/2002
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morncloudcover1:
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