QUEST Presentations

2013 Environmental Monitoring, Evaluation and Protection (EMEP) Conference: Linking Science and Policy, Albany, New York
Mark Green offered one of the presentations during Concurrent Session D: Alternative Tools and Approaches for Environmental Research, Monitoring, and Data, November 6 & 7, 2013, Albany, NY.

Uncertainty Analysis: A Critical Step in Ecological Synthesis @ ESA, August 5, 2013

Ruth Yanai, Jeffrey Taylor and Mark Harmon organized, and John Battles moderated an "Organized Oral Session" on Uncertainty Analysis: A Critical Step in Ecological Synthesis at the 2013 Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting in Minneapolis, MN.

Abstract:

Ecology is entering an exciting era in which the number and availability of long-term data sets are increasing exponentially. There is an unprecedented need to synthesize these data to address current scientific and societal problems. Great progress has been made on linking data and theory, including spatial integration and interdisciplinary combination. The question is no longer how to synthesize, but how well we link information from disparate sources and how to identify the most important areas for improvement. These synthetic approaches will demand increased proficiency and rigor in uncertainty analysis, to provide a metric of progress in synthesis science. This OOS highlights current developments in uncertainty estimation across many fields of ecology and provided guidance for large-scale synthesis research. Speakers were encouraged to provide recommendations for standardized approaches to uncertainty estimation and a vision for meeting future needs. Further development, understanding, and dissemination of the latest statistical techniques for deriving these estimates both inform ecological sampling design and equip up-and-coming ecologists with critical skills. Speakers examined sources of uncertainty and its general role in synthesis science. Case studies included a range of topics and approaches ranging from population ecology and small watershed nutrient cycling budgets to landscape carbon budgets. Methodologies presented include parametric statistical approaches, bootstrap analysis, Monte Carlo sampling, and Bayesian hierarchical analysis. Uncertainty introduced by spatial and temporal interpolation are common themes across scales from plots to the continental ecological observatory network.

Individual Presentations

  • Uncertainty analysis: An evaluation metric for synthesis science. Mark E. Harmon*, Oregon State University Abstract | Slideshare
  • Quantifying uncertainty in ecology: Examples from small watershed studies. John L. Campbell*, United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service; Ruth D. Yanai, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry; Mark B. Green, Plymouth State University Abstract | Slideshare
  • Better ignorant than misled: Including uncertainty in forecasts supporting management and policy. N. Thompson Hobbs*, Colorado State University Abstract | PDF
  • Global Sensitivity Analysis for Impact Assessments. Matthew Aiello-Lammens*, Stony Brook University; H. Resit Akcakaya, Stony Brook University. Abstract | Slideshare
  • Optimizing environmental monitoring designs. Carrie R. Levine, UC Berkeley; Ruth D. Yanai*, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry; Gregory Lampman, NYSERDA; Douglas A. Burns, US Geologic Survey; Charles T. Driscoll, Syracuse University; Gregory B. Lawrence, U.S. Geological Survey; Jason A. Lynch, US Environmental Protection Agency; Nina Schoch, Biodiversity Research Institute. Abstract | Slideshare (audio syncing coming soon)
  • Uncertainty due to gap-filling in long-term hydrologic datasets. Craig R. See*, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry; Ruth D. Yanai, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry; Mark B. Green, Plymouth State University; Douglas I. Moore, University of New Mexico. Abstract | PDF
  • Uncertainty in an uncertain world: Using scientific judgment for evaluating uncertainty in measurement results. Janae L. Csavina*, National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON, Inc.); Jeffrey Taylor, National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON, Inc.); Joshua A. Roberti, National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON, Inc.) Abstract | Slideshare (no audio)
  • NEON's approach to uncertainty estimation for sensor-based measurements. Joshua A. Roberti*, National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON, Inc.); Jeffrey R. Taylor, National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON, Inc.); Henry W. Loescher, National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON, Inc.); Janae L. Csavina, National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON, Inc.); Derek E. Smith, National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON, Inc.) Abstract | Slideshare
  • Estimating uncertainty for continental scale measurements. Jeffrey Taylor*, National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON, Inc.); Joshua Roberti, NEON, Inc.; Derek Smith, National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON, Inc.); Steve Berukoff, National Ecological Observatory Network; Henry W. Loescher, National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON, Inc.) Abstract | Slideshare
  • Reducing uncertainty through data-driven model development. David S. LeBauer*, University of Illinois; Michael Dietze, Boston University; Deepak Jaiswal, University of Illinois; Rob Kooper, University of Illinois; Stephen P. Long, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; Shawn P. Serbin, University of Wisconsin - Madison; Dan Wang, University of Illinois. Abstract | Slideshare

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