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Forest and Natural Resources Management


Spotlight 2003 Abstracts

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TESTING THE ACCURACY OF QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN THE ONONDAGA LAKE DRAINAGE BASIN, SYRACUSE, NEW YORK
Amanda Baldauf, Jason Hanna, Eric Paashaus and Dr. Ted Endreny.

DEVELOPING A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR SHRUB MANAGEMENT
Benjamin D. Ballard and Christopher A. Nowak

IMPROVEMENT CUTTING IN DEGRADED NORTHERN HARDWOODS
Anne L. Barlow and Christopher A. Nowak

WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS DURING OCTOBER ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
Jennifer Basta, Adrienne Graham, Adam Starowicz, Jenn Thomas, and Dr. Ted Endreny .Error! Bookmark not defined.

INFLUENCE OF RAINFALL ON CARBON MONOXIDE CONCENTRATION IN AN URBAN AREA
Adam Baumann, Corey Shutzman, Dr. Ted Endreny

THE USE OF BASE AND COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY TO DETERMINE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS IMPACT ON THE DOWNSTREAM INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE STORMS, FALL 2002
Jennifer Bosworth, Sean Pearson, Stephanie Smith, and Dr. Ted Endreny.

ACCURACY OF NUMERICAL WEATHER FORCASTING MODEL/PREDICTION IN SYRACUSE, NY WITHIN A 48-HOUR PERIOD
Mandy Bruns, Amanda Button, Hana Zima and Dr. Ted Endreny.

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF THINNING DIAMETER-LIMIT CUT STANDS IN NORTHERN HARDWOODS
Lisa Casalmir, John Wagner and Chris Nowak

SPATIAL VARIATIONS IN TREE DIAMETER – HEIGHT RELATIONSHIPS
Pengfei Cheng, Lianjun Zhang and Craig J. Davis.

EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF A TWO-AGED NORTHERN HARDWOOD STAND IN THE ADIRONDACKS
Heather M. Engelman, Ralph D. Nyland, and Christopher A. Nowak

SAF STUDENT CHAPTER: GROWING OUR FUTURE THROUGH COMMUNITY OUTREACH
Michael Farrell

AN ECOLOGICAL-ECONOMIC HISTORY OF CAYUGA COUNTY, NEW YORK 1800-2000
Eric J. Greenfield and Dr. Valerie A. Luzadis.

FOREST STEWARDSHIP PLANNING AND REPORTING TECHNOLOGY: DEVELOPMENT OF A GIS TEMPLATE FOR THE NORTHEAST
Christine Hopkins, Eddie Bevilacqua, James P. Halligan, and Lee P. Herrington.

USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL FOREST LITIGATION: UNDERSTANDING JUDICIAL REVIEW OF NATIONAL FOREST MANAGEMENT DECISIONS
Denise M. Keele, Robert W. Malmsheimer, and Donald W. Floyd

MEASURING THE EFFECTS OF STREAM FLOW AND TEMPERATURE ON TOTAL DISSOLVED SOLIDS CONCENTRATION IN AN URBAN SECTION OF ONONDAGA CREEK IN SYRACUSE, NEW YORK
Mario Mason, Matt Paul, Emily Pallo and Dr. Ted Endreny.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY
Steven J. McCague, Shannon L. Strusz, Suzanne Voelker, and Dr. Theodore Endreny

NEW ZEALAND FIELD STUDIES: AN INTERNATIONAL FIELD STUDIES COURSE
Katherine Moller

SUBSOLUM LENS ATTRIBUTES AND THEIR CONTRIBUTION TO SOIL FERTILITY IN AN AGGRADING RED PINE PLANTATION
Katherine Moller and Christopher A. Nowak

DOES QUALITY MATTER WHEN ASSESSING CHANGES IN FOREST NATURAL CAPITAL?
Erik Nordman, John Wagner, and Ross Whaley

EFFECTS OF SILVICULTURAL TREATMENTS ON COARSE WOODY DEBRIS IN THE CATSKILLS
Byung B. Park, Ruth D. Yanai, and René H. Germain

THE FAIR TRADE PROMISE: ANALYZING THE PRESENT AND FUTURE IMPACT OF FAIR TRADE COFFEE CERTIFICATION IN A TANZANIAN COMMUNITY
Bradley Parrish, William Bentley, and Valerie Luzadis.

PHYTOREMEDIATION ON AN MGP BROWNFIELD IN UTICA, NY
Jessica A. Patino, Graduate Research Assistant, and Christopher A. Nowak, PhD, Associate Professor

BIOLISTIC TRANSFORMATION OF AMERICAN CHESTNUT ( CASTANEA DENTATA ) USING GREEN FLUORESCENT PROTEIN (GFP) AS A SCORABLE MARKER
Linda Polin, Nicole Herman, Heidi DeFries and Charles Maynard.

ONCOMING WEATHER PATTERNS AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND THE PREDICTABILITY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE SUNY ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND FORESTRY CAMPUS AREA
Raymond Richer, and Dr. Ted Endreny

INSOLATION AS A PREDICTOR OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND HEIGHT FOR THE SUNY ESF CAMPUS IN SYRACUSE, NEW YORK
Tim Riley (FOR 338 TA), FOR 338/538 Students, and Dr. T. Endreny

THE IMPLIMENTATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES BASED ENTERPRISE PROJECTS IN MALAWI
Derek Simmonds and Donald Floyd.

VASCULAR PLANT DIVERSITY ON A POWERLINE RIGHT-OF-WAY IN UPSTATE NEW YORK
Heather Whittier, Christopher Nowak, and Benjamin Ballard

DECIDUOUS CANOPY INFLUENCE ON PRECIPITATION TOTALS, SYRACUSE, NEW YORK, U.S.A.
Peter Yurkosky, Andrew Wermuth, Brian Rudd and Theodore Endreny.

Abstracts

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TESTING THE ACCURACY OF QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN THE ONONDAGA LAKE DRAINAGE BASIN, SYRACUSE, NEW YORK
Amanda Baldauf , Jason Hanna , Eric Paashaus and Dr. Ted Endreny .FOR 338/538 Meteorology Course, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, New York 13210.

A quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) is an estimate of the precipitation that will fall over a given region in a 24-hour period. Complicated algorithms and equations are used to determine an approximation of precipitation for a given watershed area. The primary purpose of QPFs is the prediction of river conditions and flooding, as well as the timely issue of warnings and watches. While these algorithms and equations have undergone several calibration sequences, there does not appear to be any means for determining the accuracy of the QPFs. The primary purpose of this project is to determine the accuracy of QPFs for the Onondaga Lake watershed, which includes Syracuse, New York. The null hypothesis states that there will not be a significant relationship between QPF and precipitation. Over a three-week period in October 2002, quantitative precipitation forecasts from the National Weather Service were compared to actual precipitation data and radar images. The data for actual precipitation amounts were taken from the SUNY Environmental Science and Forestry (ESF) campus meteorological station and from radar images of the greater Syracuse area. Correlation, covariance and T-tests were used to statistically analyze the relationship between actual and predicted precipitation. There is no quantitative relationship between QPF and actual precipitation. However, QPF predictions were accurate for determining the general occurrence and logarithmic magnitude of precipitation events.

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DEVELOPING A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR SHRUB MANAGEMENT
Benjamin D. Ballard and Christopher A. Nowak , Faculty of Forest and Natural Resources Management, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210.

Shrub species are significant components of landscapes and ecosystems, occupying niches in a wide range of wetland to upland plant communities. Shrubs are found in forest understories, in disturbed areas (e.g., natural blowdown, shelterwood cuts in forestry, riparian areas), in open communities such as old fields, and other areas managed for low-growing cover (e.g., powerline corridors, historic sites such as the Saratoga battlefield). Many shrubs, native and non-native, are used as ornamental or fruit producing species in horticulture and the landscaping industry. Horticultural literature can provide a wealth of information on many of the commercially important shrubs, but for many other common shrub species, this detailed information is unavailable. There are few if any comprehensive works dealing with shrub community dynamics, yet this knowledge is critical for attaining a variety of values and services in a predictable manner, whether the objectives are providing songbird habitat, safe and reliable transmission of electricity, plant community diversity, or maintaining historic battlefield conditions.

Future vegetation character and condition can be predicted by understanding shrub dynamics using life history attributes coupled with physiography, site quality and moisture regime (edaphic conditions), past land use and treatment history, and adjacent land use (e.g., seed sources). Additionally, understanding the response of shrubs to specific disturbances—frequency and type (e.g., mowing and herbicide treatments, fire, flooding, herbivory)—will improve our ability to predict the effects of management on shrub dynamics. The distribution, rates of growth and development, longevity, competitive ability, and reproductive strategy (e.g., life history characteristics) will vary by shrub species and site. We are developing a model that considers species-specific characteristics and that groups shrubs with similar characteristics into functional groups. Using empirical data collected from observational and manipulative field experiments, the model will allow us to conceptualize and refine our understanding of factors that influence shrub dynamics in the northeast, and it will provide a framework for management of shrub communities.

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IMPROVEMENT CUTTING IN DEGRADED NORTHERN HARDWOODS
Anne L. Barlow and Christopher A. Nowak , Faculty of Forest and Natural Resources Management, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210.

For many reasons, degraded hardwood stands have become abundant in the northeast. These degraded stands provide a difficult challenge because of the small amount of acceptable growing stock (AGS) present. As a result, many of these forests require significant financial and temporal investments in order to produce high quality timber. Forest resource professionals are just realizing these challenges and are considering a range of silvicultural alternatives to rehabilitate degraded stands. Stand improvement treatments may best rehabilitate these forests by minimizing investments and shifting the balance from unacceptable to acceptable growing stock in a timely manner.

Initiated in 1970, this study is located in Heiberg Memorial Forest, approximately 25 miles south of Syracuse, NY. The experiment is an ongoing evaluation of a series of stand improvement cuts, conducted in a degraded northern hardwood stand, growing on various site conditions. This study attempted to understand stand improvement effects on species composition, structure, and quality of northern hardwood stands. Four stand improvement cuts were applied to the degraded stand, which started with 65% of the original basal area in unacceptable growing stock (UGS). Cuts were applied in a randomized complete block design, with four blocks located across a toposequence. The four treatments reduced the basal area to 90 sq. ft., 60 sq. ft., 30 sq. ft., and 0 sq. ft. Initial results showed a pattern of increased percent of basal area in AGS (p-value = 0.180), an increase in the percent of basal area in desirable species (p-value = 0.106), a decrease in the percent of basal area in American beech (p-value = 0.014), and a decrease in the percent of basal area in UGS with higher intensity of cut (p-value = 0.182). Improvement cuts that reduce the amount of UGS enhances the stand’s condition and creates better management opportunities.

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WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS DURING OCTOBER ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
Jennifer Basta , Adrienne Graham , Adam Starowicz , Jenn Thomas , and Dr. Ted Endreny ,FOR 338 Meteorology Course, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210.

Many people within the United States live along the coast including the southeastern coastline consisting of the states of North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. In 96 years (1900-1996), 180 hurricanes hit these states. Hurricane Andrew, which struck Florida in 1992, caused over $26 billion in damage and 26 people died. Watches and warnings are issued in order to reduce the number of casualties and allow enough time for people to prepare for deteriorating conditions. The North Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and ends November 30. The peak of the hurricane season is in early September, which follows with a steady decline in the number of tropical systems. Thus, there should be a greater number of watches and warnings along the southeastern coast in the first two weeks of October compared with the latter two weeks. The null hypothesis is that there is no statistical difference between the number of watches and warnings of the beginning and end of October. By observing the number and type of watches and warnings during October and using Student’s T-test, we will be able to test our hypothesis. The calculated t value is –0.237 which is less than the expected t value (alpha value .05) of 2.045 (upper limit) and greater than –2.045 (lower limit). Therefore, we reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis that there is a difference between the number of w & w during the first two weeks of October versus the last two weeks of October.

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INFLUENCE OF RAINFALL ON CARBON MONOXIDE CONCENTRATION IN AN URBAN AREA
Adam Baumann , Corey Shutzman , and Dr. Ted Endreny .FOR 338 Meteorology Course, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210.

This study was conducted in order to obtain quantitative facts of how air pollutants, specifically carbon monoxide, are affected by the influence of a rain event. Does the amount of chemical in the air decrease when a rainstorm passes? A Lamotte air quality pump was used to determine the amount of carbon monoxide in the air at two different locations. One location was along Onondaga creek, the other from Lawrinson Hall ( Lat: 43.0351410 Lon: -76.1379166) on the ESF campus. The test was designed to show some trend in chemical concentration and its affiliation with a rain event. The test results showed that as a rain event occurs carbon monoxide is knocked from the atmosphere pretty significantly. This is a very important finding in that it shows that the air we breathe after a rainstorm is actually “fresher” than before the storm. The data sets show a significant decline in the amount of carbon dioxide in the air once the storm has run its course. In fact the numbers (ppm) are almost exact in the two tests. They both show that the [CO] was at around 17ppm and dropped to around 12.5ppm after the storm. The data from the single storm jumps back up to 15ppm but this may be due to an increase in traffic during the middle of the day

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THE USE OF BASE AND COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY TO DETERMINE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS IMPACT ON THE DOWNSTREAM INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE STORMS, FALL 2002
Jennifer Bosworth , Sean Pearson , Stephanie Smith , and Dr. Ted Endreny ,FOR 538 Meteorology Course, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210.

When a storm event passes through an urban heat island, the increased energy radiated by the urban area may enhance the convective processes of the storm, increasing the storm’s intensity. Previous research has utilized TRMM satellite data, weather station data sets, and numerous modeling scenarios in an effort to delineate and deconstruct the many potential meteorological phenomena that influence these events. This study examines the effect of an urban area on storm intensity using NEXRAD measurement of reflectivity from NOAA radar images. We hypothesized that the urban heat island increases the severity of convective storms that pass through an urban area as demonstrated by an increase in storm intensity downwind of the urban center. Base and composite reflectivity radar images were used to analyze storms passing through Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota and Syracuse, New York from September 24 through November 4, 2002. Qualitative and quantitative analyses indicated that the urban area had no discernible effect on the downwind intensity of the storm as it passed through the urban heat island. A viable methodology for using radar reflectivity in the analysis of storm intensity and UHI is presented for future research.

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ACCURACY OF NUMERICAL WEATHER FORCASTING MODEL/PREDICTION IN SYRACUSE, NY WITHIN A 48-HOUR PERIOD
Mandy Bruns , Amanda Button , Hana Zima and Dr. Ted Endreny ,FOR 338/538 Meteorology Course, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210.

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is the forecasting of weather based upon the solutions of mathematical equations by high-speed computers. NWP models analyze weather observations taken at six-hour intervals from over 10,000 ground stations and at twelve-hour intervals from several hundred radiosonde balloons located all around the globe. Atmospheric models are created from this data that consist of dozens of mathematical equations that describe how atmospheric temperature, pressure, winds and moisture will change with time. This research tested the null hypotheses that: (1) Ho= There is a correlation between the NWP models and actual observed weather data; Ha= There is no correlation between the NWP models and actual observed data. (2) H o= There is a high degree of accuracy in NWP forecasting; H a=There is not a high degree of accuracy in NWP forecasting. Research methods included downloading Eta and model output statistics (MOS) model predictions from the UNISYS website, and actual weather observations from REDSEA, the SUNY ESF Weather Station website. Analysis of the data included t-tests to examine differences in mean values for each forecast weather variable and observed values. There is no significant difference between the predicted values for maximum temperature, precipitation, or wind direction and our observed results. However, there is a significant difference
(p-value < 0.05) in our measurements of wind speed and the wind speeds forecasted by the NWP models.

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FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF THINNING DIAMETER-LIMIT CUT STANDS IN NORTHERN HARDWOODS
Lisa Casalmir , John Wagner and Chris Nowak ,Faculty of Forest and Natural Resources Management, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse NY 13210.

In many northern hardwood stands, financial pressures encourage various degrees of diameter-limit cutting. Managers and landowners are now faced with decisions regarding these diameter-limit cut stands. The potential economic viability of a diameter-limit cut stand can determine how it can be managed. This research examines when thinning improves the net present value (NPV) for diameter-limit cut stands.

SILVAH is used to simulate growth and yield for two northern hardwood stands under various intensities of thinning and diameter-limit cuts. One stand is a 75-year, black cherry and sugar maple dominated, Allegheny hardwood stand. The other is a 75-year, sugar maple dominated, northern hardwood stand. Results from our empirical analyses indicate that there is no set diameter –limit cut and thinning level combination at which thinning improves NPV for all stands. Interactions among financial and stand parameters determine which thinning intensity for each diameter-limit cut stand produces the highest NPV for that stand. An additional outcome of analyzing the SILVAH output economically is to illustrate the type of analyses a forester should conduct when analyzing if thinning would improve a client’s stand financially.

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SPATIAL VARIATIONS IN TREE DIAMETER – HEIGHT RELATIONSHIPS
Pengfei Cheng , Lianjun Zhang and Craig J. Davis . Faculty of Forest and Natural Resources Management, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210.

Traditionally the relationship between tree diameter and total height in a forest stand is investigated by using linear or non-linear regression models, in which the spatial dependency on the relationship is largely ignored. Spatial dependency has two aspects: spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity. Positive spatial dependency (trees are surrounded by similar-sized trees) is mainly due to the effects of micro-site, while inter-tree competition tends to create a negative autocorrelation (trees are surrounded by dissimilar-sized trees). Between the micro-site variation and tree competition, the former has stronger influence on forest spatial structure. Although forest modelers have used a variety of statistical techniques to study spatial autocorrelations, the influence of micro-site variation or spatial heterogeneity has been mostly neglected [1]. The objective of this study is to explore the spatial variations in the tree diameter – height relationship in a eucalyptus stand using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) [2]. GWR attempts to capture spatial variations by calibrating a multiple regression model fitted at each tree, weighting all neighboring trees by a function of distance from the subject tree. GWR produces a set of parameter estimates and model R 2for each tree in the stand. The results indicate that (i) the GWR model produces much smaller model residuals across diameter classes than the traditional OLS model does; and (ii) the overall average (0.63) of the model absolute residual from the GWR model is 3.6 times smaller than that (2.27) from the OLS model. Furthermore, the parameter estimates and model statistics of the GWR model can be mapped using visualization tools such as Geographical Information System (GIS) to illustrate local spatial variations in the regression relationship under study.

[1] Fox, J.C., P.K. Ades, and H. Bi. 2001. Stochastic structure and individual-tree growth models. For. Ecol. Manage. 154:261-276. [2] Fotheringham, A.S., C. Brunsdon, and M. Charlton. 2002. Geographically Weighted Regression: the analysis of spatially varying relationships. John Wiley & Sons. New York. 269 p.

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EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF A TWO-AGED NORTHERN HARDWOOD STAND IN THE ADIRONDACKS
Heather M. Engelman , Ralph D. Nyland , and Christopher A. Nowak ,Faculty of Forest and Natural Resources Management, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, 13210.

Two-aged silviculture has been proposed as an alternative to clearcutting in forests across North America. However, until recently, there has been little impetus to describe the character and structure of such stands or to quantify the pattern of establishment and development of their regeneration. As a result, questions about species richness, evenness, and diversity in the early development of two-aged stands have not been addressed. Managers are thus unable to predict a two-aged system will produce the highly desirable species associated with traditional even or uneven-aged reproduction methods. With this in mind, we assessed the composition of woody vegetation beneath and between residual sugar maple ( Acer saccharum ) in the Maple Sale Stand at the Anna and Archer Huntington Wildlife Forest in Newcomb, NY. This stand was selectively logged in 1957-58 and regenerated in 1979 using a reserve-shelterwood seed cut. Chemical site preparation eliminated low growing vegetation. Milacre plots were established on a grid throughout the stand in, and also near the center of “shadow patterns” beneath residual sugar maple. Single stems and sprout clumps in the understory were tallied by species within each plot; stems greater than 1 inch in diameter were individually measured and classified by canopy class. Sugar maple and beech ( Fagus grandifolia ) were found far more frequently immediately beneath the residual trees than at the open grid points. Conversely, while yellow birch ( Betula alleghaniensis ) were located throughout the stand, there were a greater number of stems outside of the shadow. A greater understanding of the changing canopy structure in such stands will permit managers to better predict development of the stands in their care, and enable them to influence the speed and direction of development as needed.

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SAF STUDENT CHAPTER: GROWING OUR FUTURE THROUGH COMMUNITY OUTREACH
Michael Farrell , SAF Chapter Chair, Faculty of Forest and Natural Resource Management, SUNY College of Environmental Science & Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210.

The student chapter of the Society of American Foresters at ESF is alive and well. In recent months, the organization has seen a resurgence in membership and activity. A rallying point for the group has been its ambitious Memorial Grove project. The chapter, now 80 members strong, will be planting 1,000 sugar maple trees at Heiberg Forest this Spring. Sugar maple was chosen since it is our state tree and grows well at the site. We will be planting the seedlings with approximately 50 local third graders, serving as role models while educating our youth about the importance of trees for the environment. Furthermore, as a way to raise money to aid in our efforts as student hosts of the Society of American Foresters National Convention (to be held in Buffalo this coming fall), we are seeking people to sponsor the planting of the grove. For more information on our student chapter and the progress on the grove, feel free to visit our website at http://www.esf.edu/org/saf

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AN ECOLOGICAL-ECONOMIC HISTORY OF CAYUGA COUNTY, NEW YORK 1800-2000
Eric J. Greenfield and Dr. Valerie A. Luzadis , Faculty of Forest and Natural Resources Management, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210.

To encourage appropriate community development that promotes wellbeing between nature and humans, we need to understand the components, relationships, and patterns within local ecological-economic systems. This analysis summarizes the results of a “first-step” exploratory research project with the objective of examining, measuring and describing the Cayuga County, New York ecological-economic system over 200 years. Summarized and aggregated variables of energy, land use, human population, human population age-classes, employment, business establishments, and dwellings describe and measure a system that has patterns of growth, peak, decline, succession, and self-organization similar to long-term ecosystem development. F. Herbert Bormann and Gene E. Likens’ Biomass Accumulation Model for forested ecosystems, and Howard T. Odum’s principle of Self-Organization and Maximum Power help to explain these patterns in the Cayuga County ecological-economic system.

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FOREST STEWARDSHIP PLANNING AND REPORTING TECHNOLOGY: DEVELOPMENT OF A GIS TEMPLATE FOR THE NORTHEAST
Christine Hopkins , Eddie Bevilacqua , James P. Halligan , and Lee P. Herrington ,Faculty of Forest and Natural Resources Management, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210.

Natural resources management is necessary to keep private forest lands intact and healthy. Under the USDA Forest Stewardship Program the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) has committed itself to this task. SUNY ESF is developing an application for the DEC field foresters to make recording and reporting Stewardship activities more efficient. The application is an extension for ArcView 3.x Geographic Information System (GIS). The goal is to standardize Forest Stewardship Plans and manage the associated data in a universal format. This will allow for regional and statewide summarization of lands in the program and at the same time assist foresters in the creation of plan reports. The extension will be a self-explanatory user interface allowing for the creation of data in a guided format. Extensive familiarity with GIS or ArcView will not be required. Properties will be in digital format and therefore measurements such as acreage under management can be determined by the GIS. This is intended to avoid computational and transfer errors. DEC field foresters are the target audience for this extension, but considerations are also being made for private consultants that may desire to use the extension as well. The anticipated outcome of this project is an ArcView 3.x extension that could be adapted as a standard by the Northeast region. In creating a standard for Forest Stewardship Plans, it is expected that they will become easier to work with and that the compilation of valuable statistics will be completed in a timely and efficient manner.

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USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL FOREST LITIGATION: UNDERSTANDING JUDICIAL REVIEW OF NATIONAL FOREST MANAGEMENT DECISIONS
Denise M. Keele , Robert W. Malmsheimer , and Donald W. Floyd ,Faculty of Forest and Natural Resources Management, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210.

Historically, federal courts had a minimal impact on the U.S. Forest Service’s management of National Forests. However, with the passage of numerous environmental laws in the 1970s, judicial review of Forest Service management decisions became a key component of the political process. Few studies have attempted to understand the scope of judicial challenges to Forest Service management decisions. This study analyzes published and unpublished judicial opinions (1989-2001) where the Forest Service was the defendant in a challenge to a management decision under eight different statutes affecting National Forest management. The study: 1) examines factors associated with successful and unsuccessful challenges to Forest Service decisions, 2) tests whether published opinions, which represent only a portion of all opinions, are representative of all legal challenges to Forest Service management, 3) develops a National Forest litigation model to predict successful and unsuccessful legal challenges, and 4) analyzes the forest management and economic impacts of delays associated with unsuccessful judicial challenges. We are currently in the initial phases of this research project. While we have not yet obtained all the federal court challenges to Forest Service management, we were provided with a database containing most published and unpublished legal challenges from 1996 to 2001. We performed a preliminary analysis of the temporal, spatial, and decisional trends in these cases. The Forest Service wins most District Court (67.5%) and Court of Appeals (75.9%) cases. From 1996 to 2001 the Forest Service’s District Court success rate declined from the 70-80% range to the 50-60% range. The Ninth Circuit mirrors this trend since its District Courts decided more than half the cases in the study. District Court and Court of Appeals cases were fairly evenly distributed across Forest Service Regions. Future research efforts will examine the factors associated with challenges, their relationship to decision outcomes, any differences between published and unpublished opinions, and the on-the-ground impacts of forest litigation.

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MEASURING THE EFFECTS OF STREAM FLOW AND TEMPERATURE ON TOTAL DISSOLVED SOLIDS CONCENTRATION IN AN URBAN SECTION OF ONONDAGA CREEK IN SYRACUSE, NEW YORK
Mario Mason , Matt Paul, Emily Pallo , and Dr. Ted Endreny , FOR 338 Meteorology Course, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, New York 13210.

Stream-flow is a characteristic of riparian habitats that is significantly altered during storm events and has a direct relationship to concentrations of total dissolved solids (TDS). Measuring total dissolved solids can give indications of water quality, which is an important element to consider in urban riparian habitats such as Onondaga Creek in Syracuse, New York, an area that is greatly affected by human activity. The null hypothesis for this research was that an increase in stream-flow during a storm event would cause a proportional increase in total dissolved solid concentrations. Methods included collecting total dissolved solids and temperature data from a section of Onondaga Creek at Dorwin Avenue during three storm events that occurred on September 27, October 13, and November 17, 2002. Stream-flow data was supplied by a USGS gauging station located just downstream from Dorwin Ave. Instrumentation included the HACH sension 156 multiparameter meter to measure total dissolved solids and temperature and the USGS website to obtain stream-flow and precipitation data. Results were derived by placing total dissolved solids data next to the USGS stream-flow data at corresponding times. From our analysis it was determined that increases in stream-flow during isolated storm events had a direct relationship to decreases in TDS concentrations. There is no evidence to suggest that water temperature have any effect on TDS. It was also shown that during a period of weekly measurements, TDS concentrations fluctuate, even though stream-flow remains constant. It was concluded that during isolated storm events, a quantitative assessment of TDS load can be made based on changes in stream-flow after an initial measurement of TDS was taken.

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RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY
Steven J. McCague , Shannon L. Strusz , Suzanne Voelker , and Dr. Theodore Endreny ,FOR 338/538 Meteorology Course, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210.

The drastic impact that tropical cyclones have on the integrity of many ecosystems, including those of urban development, is a concern to meteorologists around the world. Although many variables are involved in development, intensity, and conveyance of the storm, sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations before and after storms have not been fully examined. The null hypothesis stated that SSTs, before and after a tropical cyclone, at a recorded location within the storm’s track, are directly related. Thus, as the temperatures fluctuate prior to storm development, they will follow the same pattern after storm passing. Using AVHRR satellite data from The University of Rhode Island AVHRR and National Climatic Data Center websites, correlations for each storm were calculated using Microsoft Excel. Many of the storms displayed high correlations, suggesting a positive relationship, which supported the null hypothesis. However, the SSTs did not appear to fluctuate greatly before and after the storms at each examined location. These findings suggest that although the high-energy content within the marine water is critical during storm development, warm SST may be of lesser importance for maintaining a tropical cyclone.

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NEW ZEALAND FIELD STUDIES: AN INTERNATIONAL FIELD STUDIES COURSE
Katherine Moller , Faculty of Forest and Natural Resources Management, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, New York 13210.

From cool temperate rain forests to glaciers to warm sandy beaches, New Zealand is a paradise for adventure travelers and scientists alike. SUNY-ESF students are able to experience this diversity through the International Field Studies program. The SUNY-ESF New Zealand field course covers a broad array of topics with the overriding theme of island biodiversity. While in New Zealand, students enjoy a fantastic tour of both the north and south islands. Students discover how climate and landforms have led to the formation of so many unique habitats in such a small geographic region. On the south island, rugged mountains on the west coast host cool wet climates while the east coast enjoys the warm dry climate caused by the mountains’ rain shadow effect. The north island, while significantly warmer and drier has experienced more of the effects of modern civilization with over 50% of the original indigenous forest having been converted to pasture land for production of one of New Zealand’s main exports, wool. The New Zealand field study is an excellent opportunity to explore island biodiversity first hand.

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SUBSOLUM LENS ATTRIBUTES AND THEIR CONTRIBUTION TO SOIL FERTILITY IN AN AGGRADING RED PINE PLANTATION
Katherine Moller and Christopher A. Nowak ,Faculty of Forest and Natural Resources Management, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, New York 13210.

At the K-limited Pack Forest outwash plain in the southeastern Adirondack’s of New York, subsolum lenses may make an important contribution to nutrient cycling. In the 1950’s plots at the site with irregular, discontinuous silt lenses were found to contain greater moisture and K than sites without these lenses. Further studies on the Plain found roots of red pine ( Pinus resinosa Ait.) growing to depths of up to 5-m to reside within these silt lenses. Subsequent research demonstrated that nutrient uptake by red pine is occurring from these deep lenses. Our current study strives to provide a detailed analysis of the vertical and horizontal distribution, and variability in texture, cation exchange capacity, pH, and organic matter of the lenses distributed throughout the Plain. Four randomly selected lens sampling points were located in each of 25 historic plots on the Plain. These points were sampled to a depth of 3.3-m with a bucket auger. Where lenses were found, depth to and depth of the lens was recorded, and a sample of the full depth of lens material was collected. Lens samples were analyzed for texture, CEC, pH, and organic matter. Our study confirms previous determinations that the lenses on the Plain are irregular, slanting and discontinuous. We further discovered three distinct lens textures: sandy loam, silt loam, and silt. Previously, work had only classed lenses as silt. We found significant differences in CEC, pH and organic matter among contemporary lens classes and compared to those historically sampled. Sandy loam lenses appear to be a more optimum root growth media than the silt loam or silt lenses, with higher CEC (p=<0.001,<0.001 resp.), higher pH (p=0.0017, 0.0055) and greater organic matter (p=0.151, 0.100). As previously suggested, the silt lenses may carry a greater water holding capacity. Further investigation of these lenses will include individual nutrient analyses and exploration of the relationships between lens physical and chemical properties with above-ground plant growth and surface soil chemistry.

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DOES QUALITY MATTER WHEN ASSESSING CHANGES IN FOREST NATURAL CAPITAL?
Erik Nordman , John Wagner , and Ross Whaley ,Faculty of Forest and Natural Resources Management, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210.

Forest natural capital is the collection of forest ecosystems that provide humans with life-supporting goods and services. A declining stock of natural capital is a sign of unsustainability. The land area classified as forest cover in New York State has increased over the last twenty years. Clearly the quantity of forest natural capital has increased. However the size of the stock is believed to be not as critical as the ability of the stock to perform the essential, life-sustaining functions. Our hypothesis is, therefore, the quality of ecosystem functions is an important component of natural capital stock. We will test this hypothesis by assessing the change in forested land area by means of remote sensing in sample areas across New York State. We will rank the sample areas by the percentage change in forest cover. We will assess ecosystem quality in the sample areas by measuring the outputs of key indicator functions (carbon sequestration, soil stabilization, system resilience, and provision of timber). We will again rank the sample areas by change in output of ecosystem functions. By comparing the two rankings, we will be able to determine if incorporating ecosystem quality measurements has an affect on the change in natural capital stock. Our findings will shed light on the potential for sustainable development in New York State.

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EFFECTS OF SILVICULTURAL TREATMENTS ON COARSE WOODY DEBRIS IN THE CATSKILLS
Byung B. Park , Ruth D. Yanai , and René H. Germain ,Faculty of Forestry and Natural Resources Management, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210.

Coarse woody debris (CWD) is an important component of forested ecosystems that requires increased attention with changing demands on forest management. CWD can be a large component of aboveground carbon storage and provide a pool of nutrients for long periods of time, but the variety of silvicultural treatments applied makes it difficult to predict. This study was conducted to determine the effects of silvicultural treatments and harvesting practices on CWD biomass, nutrient capital and carbon content. Information on CWD was collected by using the modified planar intercept method at the Lennox Model Forest with a variety of silvicultural treatments. We collected subsamples 15 cm (6 inch) length by species and 4 decay classes to determine their density and nutrient concentration. The density of CWD decreases as it falls to the ground and decays. Change in density on aboveground (D a) and downed CWD (D d) can be obtained from D a= - 0.05 x (Decay class) + 0.47 (R 2= 0.36) and D d= -0.08 x (Decay class) + 0.46 (R 2= 0.60). Biomass of control, croptree cut, crown thinning, highgrade harvesting, patch clearcut, precommercial thinning, and shelterwood cut is 80, 310, 181, 214, 183, 198, 291, and 206 kg ha –1 . The proportion of well-decayed CWD is highest in the control and highgrade harvesting sites. Large CWD (larger 20 cm in diameter) is relatively rare in the highgrade thinning sites. This study shows that silvicultural methods can significantly influence the amount of CWD, especially soon after cutting. Carbon and nutrient concentrations will be analyzed soon. This study will provide valuable information in selecting treatments to accommodate non-timber values such as wildlife habitat, nutrient cycling, and carbon storage.

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THE FAIR TRADE PROMISE: ANALYZING THE PRESENT AND FUTURE IMPACT OF FAIR TRADE COFFEE CERTIFICATION IN A TANZANIAN COMMUNITY
Bradley Parrish , William Bentley , and Valerie Luzadis ,Faculty of Forest and Natural Resources Management, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210.

Certification has emerged in the last several years as an innovative, market-based approach to support socially and environmentally responsible products. Historically, certification programs have focused on one specific benefit, e.g. sustainably harvested lumber, energy efficient appliances, humane labor standards. However, recent trends indicate a desire by certification organizations to encompass more holistic benefits. A leader in this endeavor, and presently unique in its scope, is the Fair Trade certification program. This scheme seeks to address an array of economic, social, and environmental development challenges in producer communities using its certification mark. As the Fair Trade movement gains momentum, a central question is whether or not the program is in fact successful in improving the lives of its target communities. A handful of studies have been conducted by Fair Trade organizations themselves to assess the impact of their operations. However, very few academic studies have been undertaken in this regard. Those studies which have been published tend to focus on a macro-level analysis of economic factors, disregarding other development components of the scheme. Fair Trade certification programs are centered on the goal of local and regional development of producer communities. As such, I propose a community-level analysis to study the regional economic, social, and environmental impacts of Fair Trade certification. Several coffee-growing regions of northern Tanzania will be studied. They will be as similar as possible in terms of size, location, climate, demographics, dependency on coffee as primary cash crop, etc. The key difference will be whether the communities participate in Fair Trade certification or utilize conventional marketing outlets. Rural appraisal and participatory research methods will be used to compare locally-relevant indicators of wealth, community strength, and ecosystem health. In addition, a market analysis will be conducted to estimate the potential world market for Fair Trade coffee. Combined, these two analyses will provide a useful picture of the present and potential future development impact of the Fair Trade program.

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PHYTOREMEDIATION ON AN MGP BROWNFIELD IN UTICA, NY
Jessica A. Patino , Graduate Research Assistant, and Christopher A. Nowak , PhD, Associate Professor, Faculty of Forest and Natural Resources Management SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210.

Brownfields are abandoned or underused properties where expansion or redevelopment is complicated by real or perceived environmental contamination. Phytoremediation ?plant use for the remediation of contaminated environments ?has been proposed as an alternative or complementary technique to treat polluted soil on brownfields. Of primary concern on many sites, and to this project, is contamination with petroleum hydrocarbons, specifically polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Our phytoremediation study was conducted on a 1-acre MGP brownfield site at Niagara Mohawk: A National Grid Company’s Harbor Point Research Facility, 1-mile north of the central business district in Utica, New York. A repeated measures split-plot, randomized incomplete block field design was installed in June 1999 with four treatments in four blocks. Plot sizes were 6.1m x 6.1m with a 3.3m unplanted buffer strip separating all plots. Treatments were: (1) unvegetated control, (2) plantings of white clover, red fescue, Kentucky bluegrass, and annual rye, (3) volunteer, old-field vegetation including loosestrife, asters, goldenrod, and grasses, and (4) mixed willow and poplar plantation volunteer. Measurements of soil PAHs are collected from 0-15cm and 15-30cm depth at the end of each growing season. After 3 years, total priority PAH concentrations had decreased 36% over time for all treatments (p=<0.01). Rate of decrease was higher for the vegetated treatments compared to the unvegetated control (p=0.10). Results-to-date from the Harbor Point study are producing clear, positive results of operational-level phytoremediation effects. It appears that PAH-contaminants in the soil are being reduced with cultured and uncultured plant communities.

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BIOLISTIC TRANSFORMATION OF AMERICAN CHESTNUT (CASTANEA DENTATA) USING GREEN FLUORESCENT PROTEIN (GFP) AS A SCORABLE MARKER
Linda Polin , Nicole Herman , Heidi DeFries and Charles Maynard ,Faculty of Forest and Natural Resources Management, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210.

In 1904 , Cryphonectria parasitica , a fungus that causes a girdling canker disease called chestnut blight, was discovered on American chestnut in the Bronx Zoo. Within 50 years most of the American chestnut trees in the United States were dead or dying. It may be possible to reduce the damage caused by the blight by inserting blight-resistance genes into the American chestnut genome. One method is by shooting DNA-covered microprojectiles into plant tissue via the gene gun. DNA that is inserted into cells can be detected using a GFP (green fluorescent protein) marker gene. Cells that contain this gene will fluoresce green under a filter with an emission wavelength of 515 nm and an excitation wavelength of 470 nm. For this study, somatic embryos were bombarded with DNA containing the marker gene mGFP5-er. Six parameters of the gene gun process were optimized to increase transient expression: the time it takes to see peak expression (1-14 days), the appropriate distance from the center to place the tissue (2 mm, 4 mm, 6 mm, 8 mm or 10 mm), gold particle size (0.6 µm, 1.0 µm, or 1.6 µm), helium pressure (100 psi, 150 psi or 250 psi), osmotic type (sucrose, mannitol or sorbitol) and osmotic concentration (0.25 M or 0.6 M). After observing the embryonic clumps every day for 14 days, the optimum time to see fluorescence was found to be day 2 or 3. The embryonic clumps placed 2 mm and 4 mm from the center showed a significantly higher response than those placed at 6 mm, 8 mm or 10 mm. The smallest gold particle size (0.6 µm) elicited a significantly greater number of fluorescing cells than the 1.0 µm and 1.6 µm particle sizes. The highest pressure (250 psi) produced a significantly greater response than 100 psi, though it was not significantly different than 150 psi. Finally, the best osmotic treatment was 0.25 M mannitol. Further studies will determine if these optimized parameters will allow the recovery of transgenic blight resistant chestnut trees.

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ONCOMING WEATHER PATTERNS AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND THE PREDICTABILITY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE SUNY ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND FORESTRY CAMPUS AREA .
Raymond Richer , and Dr. Ted Endreny , FOR 338 Meteorology Course, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210.

In the past, farmers looked at the sky to determine the weather that was approaching. The question of: do weather frontal systems have predictable cloud cover could be asked? Using: Ahrens text, Meteorology Today , local weather stations such as Hancock International Airport and the internet local data on weather and cloud observations was collected. Observers would be made at the State University of New York’s College of Environmental Science and Forestry located in Syracuse, NY; these observations would occur two or more times a day. The data collected was qualitative, so analysis was based on observed data with predetermined data from text sources. In the determination of whether or not predictability was the answer; if the clouds observed represent half of the expected clouds the front produced predictable cloud cover. If 80% of all observed frontal systems had predictable cloud cover then cloud predictability was determined. The study resulted in an overall 84.2% guarantee that cloud cover was predictable, failing to reject the hypothesis. Thus upon the findings it can be determined that while not totally reliable watching cloud evolution can give insight into the weather approaching.

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INSOLATION AS A PREDICTOR OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND HEIGHT FOR THE SUNY ESF CAMPUS IN SYRACUSE, NEW YORK
Tim Riley (FOR 338 TA), FOR 338/538 Students, and Dr. T. Endreny FOR 338/538 Meteorology Course, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, New York 13210.

Cloud cover data are typically observed by automated instruments that detect percent of open sky as a light source or by human observation of the same, and cloud type typically by determined by human observation. Many hydrological models require solar radiation (insolation), cloud type and sky cover to parameterize snowmelt routines, photolysis routines, and evaporation routines, but these cloud data are scarce in many watersheds, due to a lack of recorded human observations. This study examined the October 2002 relationship between SUNY ESF automated pyranometer measurements of insolation and human recorded estimates of cloud cover and height, inferred from cloud type. Pyranometer measurements were taken 10 minutely. The cloud observations were recorded at 3 time intervals daily, cloud cover was constrained to descriptive terms including clear, partly, and mostly cloudy, and cloud height was constrained to ranges at 1000s of feet. The correlation between automated pyranometer readings and cloud cover were negative at 0.50 R 2, while the correlation with cloud height was positive at a weaker R 2of 0.28. This study indicated limited correlations between insolation and cloud cover and height, and additional work may be pursued to investigatethe seasonality of this trend and the use of temperature data to refine the estimate.

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THE IMPLIMENTATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES BASED ENTERPRISE PROJECTS IN MALAWI
Derek Simmonds and Donald Floyd ,Faculty of Forest and Natural Resources Management, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210.

Nations around the world are trying to find ways to combine environmental protection with economic development. Donor organizations are constantly searching for better ways of achieving these goals in the developing world. Community-Based Natural Resources Management provides a framework for developing countries to allow their rural residents to derive benefits from natural areas without destroying them. One promising technique for encouraging non-degrading uses for forests, which provides direct benefits for local communities, is promoting Natural Resources Based Enterprises (NRBEs). This type of project is popular among donor organizations because they serve two important goals – they contribute to poverty reduction and add value to natural systems in the minds of local people. The income from these projects can rarely supply all the needs of rural families, but they add another livelihood strategy to their personal economies. This research seeks to determine which model of implementing these projects is more effective and efficient in Malawi. To do this, the study will compare two donor organizations that use different implementation approaches. To compare the donors’ approaches, the study will look at the portion of the project under local control, the funding style of the donor, and the type of intermediary organization used (e.g. international NGO, local NGO, community group, etc.). To determine project effectiveness the study will measure the total amount of money spent, the number of households effected, the timeframe, and if the project is moving towards independence. To determine project efficiency, the study will use various methods to measure the community’s economic change and willingness to protect their natural areas since the project was started. The results of this study will be used to identify more effective and efficient implementation strategies to promote NRBEs in Malawi.

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VASCULAR PLANT DIVERSITY ON A POWERLINE RIGHT-OF-WAY IN UPSTATE NEW YORK
Heather Whittier , Christopher Nowak , and Benjamin Ballard Faculty of Forest and Natural Resources Management, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210.

Managed utility rights-of-way (ROWs) function as important components in sustaining diverse early-successional communities across the landscape. We examined the effects of ROW vegetation management on the diversity of vascular plant communities on a 24 km section of ROW north of Rome, New York. This ROW has been managed for nearly 20 years since initial line construction, and prior to this study, was last treated with herbicides in 1988. Herbicides were selectively and non-selectively applied using basal and stem-foliar methods. A 2x2 factorial experiment in a randomized incomplete block design was used to determine the effects of herbicide treatments on vascular plant diversity, plant community composition, and the importance of non-native species. Vegetation was sampled in the summers of 1999 and 2000 on 17 experimental units. Diversity was calculated using six commonly used indices: richness, Shannon-Wiener index, Shannon evenness, Simpson index, Margalef index, and Berger-Parker index. Importance values were calculated for six phylogenetic categories—ferns/allies, graminoids, forbs, shrubs, Rubus , and trees. ANOVA was used to test for treatment effects, and correlation analyses were used to evaluate the association between non-natives and diversity. There were 272 plants identified across a sampled area of 8.87 hectares. Five of the six diversity indices showed no treatment effects (p=0.23 to 0.98). Simpson’s index was significantly higher on selective treatments than on non-selective treatments (p=0.12). Forbs and graminoids had higher importance values on non-selectively treated areas (p=0.04 and 0.03, respectively). Importance values of trees were significantly higher on basal treatments than stem-foliar treatments (p=0.08). While at least 20 percent of the identified species were not native to New York State, there does not appear to be an association between the importance values of non-natives and diversity. There were no treatment effects on the importance values of non-natives (p>0.65). Site conditions and land use history will be examined in further analyses to better understand the driving mechanisms of diversity on these sites.

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DECIDUOUS CANOPY INFLUENCE ON PRECIPITATION TOTALS, SYRACUSE, NEW YORK, U.S.A.
Peter Yurkosky , Andrew Wermuth , Brian Rudd and Theodore Endreny .FOR 338/538 Meteorology Course, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210.

Using a storm-by-storm comparison, this study analyzes the precipitation differences between two sites, one free exposed to the sky, and one under the canopy of a common Eastern hardwood. We attempt to answer the following question: Are there differences in precipitation between an exposed station, and a station under the canopy of a typical Eastern broadleaf tree, and if so whether these differences are pronounced. We begin with the null hypothesis (H o)that the difference between the sites is zero. Initial results suggest that the precipitation amounts, totaled for the storms, favor the open-sky site, as totals were 21% higher over the season. However the difference itself can be analyzed in terms of storm size, suggesting that brief rainfall events which generate less than 1/10 of an inch in open-sky gauges have little effect on under-canopy sites. The research has implications for a range of topics, microclimate ecology and floral disease epidemiology among them. More profound are the implications for global climate change; some models in that field have forecast a global change in precipitation patterns, which would favor less frequent, but more intense rainstorms. Such a pattern, according to our data, would lead to diminishing differences among the microclimates we have studied.


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