Our society is overwhelmingly dependant upon oil, which supplied about 40 percent of US energy use in 2007, and natural gas, which supplied another 25 or so percent. Global values are similar. It has also been dependent upon their growth in supply to support additional economic growth, even with some efficiency improvements. There is considerable concern about whether “peak oil” (meaning the point for a region, a nation or the world at which oil production no longer increases year by year but enters a plateau or decline) has occurred for the world or might soon. If this is true then the “end of cheap oil” might be, or might soon be, upon us. Natural gas might not be too far behind, especially in North America. Issues related to the increasing energy cost of these fuels and their substitutes (EROI) may be even more important. Because of the critical importance of this petroleum for essentially everything we do economically there are major concerns as to what the financial implications might be. Do conventional economics and conventional economic models and tools work only when it was possible to readily expand the petroleum supply? There is a strong view held by myself and others that because our main economic concepts were derived during a period of our expanding ability to do everything – i.e. that more or less regardless of policy we were able to pump more oil out of the ground readily to implement whatever we were trying to do, that conventional economic approaches may have much less relevance during times of contracting supplies. In other words, are finances beholden to the laws of physics? I think yes. Thus the question becomes: can we supplement or improve upon our ability to do economics and financial analysis by using procedures that focus more on the energy available (or not) to undertake the activity in question? This presentation will explore the relation of economics and energy with a series of innovative and empirically-based graphical and modeling approaches.


Reporting data

  Most of published oil & gas data is politically or financially motivated and is therefore not reliable. Technical data is mostly confidential and can only be bought from scout companies
    Production
OPEC production for each member country is ruled by quotas, but because OPEC members have been cheating on quotas, OPEC past oil production figures are flawed and unreliable. Real data on oil transported by tankers must be bought from spy companies (Petrologistics in Geneva). Real data on field production and field reserves must be bought from IHS (former Petroconsultants), which is the only company to provide worldwide data, and others.
-words such as energy, oil, reserves, resources, conventional, proved, probable, light, heavy, reasonable, sustainable, dangerous are badly or not defined on purpose Data is either flawed by finance (stock market) or politics (quotas), or it is simply missing. Ambiguity is often favoured on purpose
Oil and liquids: oil 2007 production can vary from regular (former conventional) oil as defined by Campbell (65,9 Mb/d) to crude oil (73 Mb/d) and finally to all liquids (85 Mb/d) including NGLs, synthetic oils from coal (CTL), biomass (BTL), and refinery gains.
World oil production for 2007
                              definition                                             Mb/d
OGJ Oil & Gas Journal
                              oil                                       72.361
WO World Oil magazine
                              crude/condensate                   74.515 796
BP Statistical Review
                              liquids (excl BTL. CTL)             81.532 910 152 325 8
USDoE (Depart of Energy)/EIA
                              crude oil                               73.573 844 712 166 8
                              all liquids                              84.597 461 4
IEA International Energy Agency
                              oil                                       85.4
The number of significant digits is ridiculous in front of the real accuracy of the data, when the difference between IEA and EIA is about 1 Mb/d for 2006