December 9-13, 2019, San Francisco, CA
Improving Ecosystem Carbon Budget Estimates and Forging Linkages for Informing Decisions
Innovations in carbon measurement technologies, platforms and coordinated networks are advancing our ability to understand carbon stores, carbon cycle feedbacks, and the level of threat they pose. For instance, interagency, multi-partner organizations such as the U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Program (CCSP) and the E.U. Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) working with thousands of multi-disciplinary community scientists, produce and use tremendous amounts of high quality data and analyses for understanding, observing and monitoring the carbon cycle. This session highlights novel data sets, quantitative methods, as well as innovative and emerging partnerships employed in characterizing the carbon cycle, with special attention to understanding the uncertainty in carbon budgets across land, air and water to inform management and policy decisions from local to global scales.
Uncertainty in Measurements of Trees in the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program. Ruth D. Yanai, John L Campbell, Alexander Young Gretchen A. Dillon, Mark B. Green, Charles J Barnett, Grant M Domke and Christopher W Woodall Abstract Presentation
Correcting Errors in Error Propagation for REDD+ Carbon Accounting. Craig Wayson, Ruth D. Yanai, James W Kirchner, Andrew Lister, John L Campbell, Mark Green, and John E Drake. Abstract
Detecting and accounting for allometric variation in trees: Implications for quantifying forest recovery (Invited) John Battles, Jacob Levine, Joseph Battles, and Perry de Valpine. Abstract
How to Estimate Statistically Detectable Trends in a Time Series: A Study of Soil Carbon and Nutrient Concentrations at the Calhoun LTSE (Invited) Daniel deB. Richter Jr, Megan L. Mobley, Yang Yang, Kevin A. Nelson, Allan R Bacon and Paul Heine. Abstract
American Society of Agronomy-Crop Science Society of America-Soil Science Society of America International Annual Meeting
November 10-13, 2019, San Antonio, TX
Quantifying Uncertainty in Ecosystem Studies, Ruth D. Yanai,
September 30 - October 4, 2018, Asilomar Conference Grounds, CA
Workshop: Best monitoring through uncertainty analysis: Optimize allocation of effort, save time and money
October 3, 2018
Periodic evaluation of monitoring programs is important to accommodate changing objectives, technological advances, and the accumulation of information over time. Uncertainty analysis can provide a basis for making difficult decisions about reducing or redirecting sampling effort, as will be illustrated in case studies involving mercury contamination in fish and loons, measurement uncertainty in forest inventory (FIA), and the number and placement of precipitation gauges at Hubbard Brook. Please come to learn about and discuss what analyses to use in which circumstances and how they might be applied at your site.
December 12-16, 2016, San Francisco, CA
The QUEST Session at American Geophysical Unionmerged with three other proposed sessions to get a full day of talks, Monday December 12, in Moscone West 2004. Quantifying Uncertainties and Merging Observations, Experiments, and Models for Improving Estimation, Mapping, and Forecasting of Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics I and II. Session:
High-Resolution Precipitation Mapping in a Mountainous Watershed: Ground Truth for Evaluating Uncertainty in a National Precipitation Dataset. Christopher Daly, Melissa E. Slater, Joshua A Roberti, Stephanie H. Laseter and Lloyd W. Swift
What if the Hubbard Brook weirs had been built somewhere else? Spatial uncertainty in the application of catchment budgets. Scott W Bailey
From Small Forest Inventory Plots to Regional Biomass Estimates: Dealing with Uncertainty from Inventory Sampling by Focusing on Trees Instead of Biomass.Bradley Tomasek, Erin M Schliep, Alan E. Gelfand and James S Clark
The following presentations are posters:
Benchmarking Terrestrial Ecosystem Models in the South Central US. Manoj Kc, Kim Winton, Michael A Langston and Yiqi Luo
How to Avoid Errors in Error Propagation: Prediction Intervals and Confidence Intervals in Forest Biomass. Paul Lilly, Ruth D. Yanai, Hannah L Buckley, Bradley S Case, Richard C Woollons, Robert J Holdaway and James Johnson
Quantifying uncertainty in carbon and nutrient pools of coarse woody debris. Craig Robert See, John L Campbell, Shawn Fraver, Grant M Domke, Mark E. Harmon, Jennifer D Knoepp, and Christopher W Woodall
Uncertainty Propagation in Predictions of Hydraulic Parameters Based on the Pedotransfer Functions. Boris Faybishenko, Tetsu K Tokunaga, Yongman Kim and Deb Agarwal
Uncertainty in a certain world: standardized approach to evaluating uncertainty in measurement results. Janae Lynn Csavina and Joshua A Roberti
Sources of variability in tissue chemistry in northern hardwood species. Yang Yang, Ruth D. Yanai, Farrah Roxanne Fatemi, Carrie R Levine, Paul Lilly and Russell Briggs
Interannual variability, correlated errors, and trend detection of evapotranspiration at AmeriFlux sites. Angela Jean Rigden and Guido Salvucci
‘spup’ – An R Package for Analysis of Spatial Uncertainty Propagation and Application to Trace Gas Emission Simulations. Kasia Sawicka, Lutz Breuer, Tobias Houska, Ignacio Santabarbara Ruiz and Gerard B.M. Heuvelink
Evaluating Random Error of Long-term, Multi-plot Flux Gradient Measurements of Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Shannon E Brown, Claudia Wagner-Riddle and Muhammad Firdaus Sulaimana
Uncertainties in detecting decadal change in extractable soil elements in Northern Forests. Olivia Bartlett, Scott W Bailey, and Mark J Ducey
A geospatial framework for improving the vertical accuracy of elevation models in Florida’s coastal Everglades. Hannah Cooper, Caiyun Zhang and Matthew Sirianni
Quantifying the impact of the longitudinal dispersion coefficient parameter uncertainty on the physical transport processes in rivers. Vivian Veronica Camacho Suarez, James Shucksmith and Alma Schellart
Forested hillslope water budget uncertainty: understanding the pathway from precipitation to biota to stream discharge. Heather Nicole Speckman, Daniel Beverly, Jason Mercer, Suman Chitrakar, Drew Thayer, Bradley Carr, Andrew Parsekian and Brent E Ewers
American Society of Agronomy/Crop Science Society of America/Soil Science Society of America Meeting
November 6 - 9, 2016, Phoenix, AZ
Quantifying uncertainty in studies of forests is important to establish the significance of findings, make predictions with known confidence, and guide investments in research and monitoring. This symposium will address sources of uncertainty in estimates of carbon and nutrients in forest soils, above- and belowground biomass, and ecosystem inputs and outputs. Presentations will address sources of uncertainty in forest ecosystem studies, including natural spatial and temporal variation, measurement error, model uncertainty, and model selection error. Examples include the importance of spatial variation in detecting change over time in soil stores and measurement error in forest inventory due to identifying or classifying trees, measuring them, and determining whether trees are live or dead and in or out of a plot. Model uncertainty within and across models is important in biomass estimation and climate predictions. Presentations will also address how these uncertainties influence monitoring designs or affect management and policy decisions.
Organizers: Mary Beth Adams, Craig See, Ruth Yanai, and Scott Chang
Does Long-Term Storage of Air-Dried Soils Effect the Results of Chemical Analyses Commonly Performed on Forest Soils? Gregory Lawrence, Michael Antidormi*, Matthew Vadeboncoeur, Paul Hazlett, Ivan Fernandez, Scott Bailey, and Donald Ross. Slideshow PDF
Regional Scale Uncertainty Estimates from Fine-Scale Forest Inventory: Stored and
Accumulated Forest Carbon in the Eastern US.
Bradley Tomasek*, Erin Schliep,Alan Gelfand,and James Clark. Slideshow PDF
Carbon Cycling of Forest Ecosystems As a Fuzzy System: An Attempt to Assess Uncertainties. Anatoly Shvidenko*, Florian Kraxner,Dmitry Schepaschenko,and Shamil Maksyutov. (Presentation not available)
October 9-13, 2016, Kruger National Park, South Africa
The International LTER Network held its first global Open Science Meeting. QUEST collaborators organized an "Estimating Uncertainty in Measurements, Experiments, and Models Workshop.
August 30-September 2, 2015, Estes Park, CO
This year's conference was organized around the theme "From Long-term data to understanding: toward a predictive ecology", and showcased 300 posters and more than 75 formal and ad-hoc working group meetings. QUEST collaborators meet informally, but also used their sites data in these presentations:
October 5-11, 2014 Salt Lake City, Utah, USA.
Presenters from four different countries described sources of uncertainty in estimates of forest carbon and nutrient pools and fluxes, including natural spatial and temporal variation, measurement error, model uncertainty, and model selection, and addressed how these uncertainties can guide monitoring designs and affect management and policy decisions.
Technical Sessions #58A & B: Quantifying Uncertainty in Forest Measurements and Models: Approaches and Applications.
Subplenary session at IUFRO World Congress, Salt Lake City. October 5-11, 2014
Presentations shared approaches to analyzing uncertainty in forest measurements and giving examples of applications of uncertainty in above- and belowground estimates of forest biomass, carbon, and nutrient pools and fluxes, as well as other ecosystem attributes.
August 10, 2014
Although methods are well established for statistical analysis of most experimental designs, there are fields in Ecology where it is more difficult to establish confidence in results (e.g., in catchment studies, treatments are rarely replicated). For environmental networks, using standardized approaches ensures that results are comparable, but sometimes the same statistical technique is not applicable to comparable data sets (e.g. when there are significant differences in the sample size of the same population at two geographically distinct locations). Many of these concerns can be addressed through the appropriate use of tools for uncertainty analysis. This workshop will highlight current developments in uncertainty estimation across many fields of ecology. Overview presentations will focus on practical examples of how uncertainty calculations can inform data over small-to-large scales. Data packages and software tools will be shared with the attendees. Participants are encouraged to bring their own data sets and laptop computers; we will provide data for the exercises if you don’t bring your own. We welcome participation by researchers in all career stages and from a broad array of ecological disciplines.
San Francisco, CA, August 5, 2013
Quantifying Uncertainty in Biogeochemical Studies I session. Oral presentations by Brent Aulenbach, John Campbell, Josh Roberti, and Ruth Yanai.
Uncertainty Analysis: A Critical Step in Ecological Synthesis
August 5, 2013
Ruth Yanai, Jeffrey Taylor and Mark Harmon organized, and John Battles moderated an "Organized Oral Session" on Uncertainty Analysis: A Critical Step in Ecological Synthesis at the 2013 Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting in Minneapolis, MN.
Ecology is entering an exciting era in which the number and availability of long-term data sets are increasing exponentially. There is an unprecedented need to synthesize these data to address current scientific and societal problems. Great progress has been made on linking data and theory, including spatial integration and interdisciplinary combination. The question is no longer how to synthesize, but how well we link information from disparate sources and how to identify the most important areas for improvement. These synthetic approaches will demand increased proficiency and rigor in uncertainty analysis, to provide a metric of progress in synthesis science. This OOS highlights current developments in uncertainty estimation across many fields of ecology and provided guidance for large-scale synthesis research. Speakers were encouraged to provide recommendations for standardized approaches to uncertainty estimation and a vision for meeting future needs. Further development, understanding, and dissemination of the latest statistical techniques for deriving these estimates both inform ecological sampling design and equip up-and-coming ecologists with critical skills. Speakers examined sources of uncertainty and its general role in synthesis science. Case studies included a range of topics and approaches ranging from population ecology and small watershed nutrient cycling budgets to landscape carbon budgets. Methodologies presented include parametric statistical approaches, bootstrap analysis, Monte Carlo sampling, and Bayesian hierarchical analysis. Uncertainty introduced by spatial and temporal interpolation are common themes across scales from plots to the continental ecological observatory network.
UNCERTAINITY DUE TO GAP-FILLING IN LONG-TERM HYDROLOGIC DATASETS. CRAIG SEE, JEREMY HAYWARD, RUTH YANAI, MARK GREEN, DOUG MOORE, AMEY BAILEY
QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY IN ECOLOGY: EXAMPLES FROM SMALL WATERSHED STUDIES. JOHN L. CAMPBELL*, USDA FOREST SERVICE; RUTH D. YANAI, SUNY COLLEGE OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND FORESTRY (ESF); MARK B. GREEN, PLYMOUTH STATE UNIVERSITY
UNCERTAINTY IN AN UNCERTAIN WORLD: USING SCIENTIFIC JUDGMENT FOR EVALUATING UNCERTAINTY IN MEASUREMENT RESULTS. JANAE L. CSAVINA*; JEFFREY TAYLOR, JOSHUA A. ROBERTI, ALL NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK (NEON, INC.)
BETTER IGNORANT THAN MISLED: INCLUDING UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTS SUPPORTING MANAGEMENT AND POLICY. N. THOMPSON HOBBS*, COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY
NEON'S APPROACH TO UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION FOR SENSOR-BASED MEASUREMENTS. JOSHUA A. ROBERTI*, JEFFREY R. TAYLOR, HENRY W. LOESCHER, JANAE L. CSAVINA, DEREK E. SMITH, ALL NEON, INC.
GLOBAL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR IMPACT ASSESSMENTS. MATTHEW AIELLO-LAMMENS*, STONY BROOK UNIVERSITY; H. RESIT AKCAKAYA, STONY BROOK UNIVERSITY.
ESTIMATING UNCERTAINTY FOR CONTINENTAL SCALE MEASUREMENTS. JEFFREY TAYLOR*, JOSHUA ROBERTI, DEREK SMITH,; STEVE BERUKOFF, HENRY W. LOESCHER, ALL NEON, INC.
OPTIMIZING ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING DESIGNS. CARRIE R. LEVINE, UC BERKELEY; RUTH D. YANAI*, SUNY ESF; GREGORY LAMPMAN, NYSERDA; DOUGLAS A. BURNS, US GEOLOGIC SURVEY; CHARLES T. DRISCOLL, SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY; GREGORY B. LAWRENCE, USGS; JASON A. LYNCH, US EPA; NINA SCHOCH, BIODIVERSITY RESEARCH INSTITUTE.
REDUCING UNCERTAINTY THROUGH DATA-DRIVEN MODEL DEVELOPMENT. DAVID S. LEBAUER*, UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS; MICHAEL DIETZE, BOSTON UNIVERSITY; DEEPAK JAISWAL, UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS; ROB KOOPER, UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS; STEPHEN P. LONG, UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN; SHAWN P. SERBIN, UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN - MADISON; DAN WANG, UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS.
Quantifying Uncertainty in Ecosystem Studies - Organizers: Ruth Yanai, John Campbell and Carrie Rose Levine
Excerpts from the February 8, 2011 Webinar
This preceded the first Quantifying Uncertainty in Ecosystem Studies meeting in Boston, March 14-15 2011.
The webinar and meeting were the first phases of our Long Term Ecological Research Network Office Synthesis Working Group (LTER SWG)'s evaluation of uncertainty in hydrologic inputs, outputs, and net hydrologic flux of major elements across small watersheds with diverse characteristics.